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In answer to your quote and comments Vlod the following are a series of quotes from AR5. They are still only from the Summary for Policy Makers, which is around 30 pages in total and well worth reading:(I do not see the quotes as giving much support for encouragement of fracking, or for carrying on as we are...)IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)WGI: The Physical Science BasisPage 17 D.3 Detection and attribution of climate changeHuman influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (see Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.Page 19E. Future Global and Regional Climate ChangeContinued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.Page 27E.8 Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and IrreversibilityCumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond (see Figure SPM.10). Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2

Julian Smith ● 4150d

Sorry, I have to take issue with Vlod's statement that nuclear is the "only serious short and medium term alternative" to fossil fuels. While I personally advocate nuclear power (especially the new generation of thorium reactors currently under development in Russia and China) as a useful stop-gap measure in the immediate short-term (next decade or so), practical ways to store energy produced by renewables are on the horizon and therefore full-scale renewable energy generation could well be a plausible option in the medium-term (by 2050 for example). A team at Harvard published a paper last year on the subject:http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/01/renewable-energy-breakthrough/Early stages indeed, though entirely possible for grid-scale storage in the not too distant future. My ex-girlfriend (who's engineering PhD was in energy generation and transmission systems) is genuinely enthusiastic that we can solve these issues with storage within the next 10 years or so if investment is put into it and she is an expert on these things. So yes, nuclear could well be useful for a decade or so but that doesn't mean that it's the "only serious short and medium alternative".I found Angie's statement at the end about wind power was quite disingenuous though, irritatingly so. She seemed to be inferring that the coalition could claim credit for the UK becoming the world's largest offshore wind-power user. The UK actually overtook Denmark to become no.1 back in 2008 under the previous Labour government.Failure to commit to new nuclear stations doesn't put the UK at risk in quite the alarmist manner that you suggest as we are already interconnected to our Western and Northern European neighbours and already sell and buy electricity via these connections. While not of the scale of a 'super-grid', it does help alleviate many problems with potential black- and brown-outs.Yours, a non-partisan who hasn't decided who gets my vote yet.

Joseph Jones ● 4150d

This thread is not about your opinions Vlod, and as previously stated I await a reply from Angie to my email.  However, the point you have failed to recognise regarding the lorry analogy is how long it may take you to step aside. If it’s going to take a (very) long time you better start stepping immediately…I think that you misunderstand the IPCC report.The ‘broader’ definition of climate change denial is not my own. Wikipedia has a very interesting article:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denialI hope that Wikipedia will forgive me for quoting some of it (their words not mine) but I strongly suggest that you read it in its entirety:Climate change denial is a denial or dismissal of the scientific consensus on the extent of global warming, its significance, or its connection to human behavior, especially for commercial or ideological reasons.[1][2] Typically, these attempts take the rhetorical form of legitimate scientific debate, while not adhering to the actual principles of that debate.[3][4] Climate change denial has been associated with the fossil fuels lobby, the Koch brothers, industry advocates and free market think tanks, often in the United States.[5][6][7][8][9] Some commentators describe climate change denial as a particular form of denialism.[10][11][12][13][14][15][16]Although there is a scientific consensus that humans are warming the climate system,[17][18] the politics of global warming combined with some of the debate in popular media has slowed global efforts at preventing future global warming as well as preparing for warming "in the pipeline" due to past emissions. Much of this debate focuses on the economics of global warming.Between 2002 and 2010, conservative billionaires secretly donated nearly $120 million (£77 million) via two trusts (Donors Trust and Donors Capital Fund) to more than 100 organizations seeking to cast doubt on the science behind climate change.[19]Peter Christoff, writing an opinion piece in The Age in 2007, said that climate change denial differs from scientific skepticism, which is essential for good science. He argues:"Almost two decades after the issue became one of global concern, the 'big' debate over climate change is over. There are now no credible scientific skeptics challenging the underlying scientific theory, or the broad projections, of climate change."[14]The relationship between industry-funded denial and public climate change skepticism has been compared to earlier efforts by the tobacco industry to undermine scientific evidence on the dangers of secondhand smoke, and linked as a direct continuation of these earlier financial relationships.[20] Aside from private industry groups, climate change denial has also been alleged regarding the statements of elected officials.[21]

Julian Smith ● 4155d

"Denial" doesn't just take the form of "Climate change is not happening". How typical of a weaselly individual like that you try to change the meaning of well understood words to make your claim. But then as you’ve referred to me as one of Angie’s stooges and claimed I disparaged the West Acton hustings on this forum this comes as no surprise. Of course you stated these things behind my back and weren’t prepared to defend them when I confronted you at the WARA hustings.As to climate change, it would might be useful to remember that the first report by the International Panel on Climate Change in 1990 forecast global warming of 2-5 degrees centigrade over the next 100 years with a central forecast of 3C. The fifth IPCC report (published in 2013) set out four climate models, each with its own forecast range of temperatures; taking the lowest and highest forecasts gives a range between 0.3 and 4.8C (no single figure best estimate is presented). When after 20 years of work scientists are producing predictions with a wider range than when they started, it would make anyone think the issue is more difficult to assess than was imagined.One should also note that the climate models failed to predict the near static global temperatures since 1998 and the IPCC cannot adequately account for this warming hiatus. And the best predictions are that warming of up to 2C will have a net positive effect on human life. That means the timescales to take ameliorative measures longer than originally thought. Your lorry analogy is ridiculously simplistic: what would you do if it might take the lorry 10-40 years to hit you?

Vlod Barchuk ● 4155d

Richard Benyon Member, Environmental Audit Committee, The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs  5:05 pm, 25th June 2013  I thank my hon. Friend Angie Bray for raising this issue. In one sense, I am dismayed that she has had to raise it. I recall our earlier debate; as she said, it was more than two years ago. It is clearly a matter of genuine concern that this site continues to be a problem for residents in the Horn Lane area. At the end of her speech, she talked about the need for “leadership”. Quite clearly, she is giving great leadership to her constituents, and she should feel reassured that that is something I recognise. Indeed, I recognise not only her determination to continue to push at the agencies and authorities that can have control of this matter but to look holistically at this problem, to see that we are not just talking about an issue relating to the problems of today but one that relates to the development of the area in the future. She has not only considered the benefits that could come from the Crossrail development but the wider need to take a proper strategic view about the long-term use of this site in relation to the local people who live around it.To set this issue in context, the Government recognise the impact that poor air quality can have on public health and we have an ongoing commitment to work towards compliance with EU obligations on air quality. In a way, that is rather a low level of aspiration. We want to do something not because we want to fulfil an EU obligation but because we care about residents in communities such as the one that my hon. Friend so eloquently describes and stands up for.We have seen considerable improvements in pollution over many years now. Measures to reduce pollution from transport sources, industrial sources and other sources have ensured that the UK now meets EU standards for annual limits of particulate matter pollution, or PM10, and daily limits. In particular, measures to reduce transport pollution, such as increasingly tight European standards, have been effective in controlling particulate matter pollution, and, in London, actions such as the Mayor’s low emission zone, fitting diesel particulate filters to London buses and other measures have all made important contributions.However, we also know that particulate matter pollution especially has health impacts beyond EU standards, and local hot spots such as Horn lane provide a continued challenge. My hon. Friend rightly pointed out that the London borough of Ealing has overall responsibility for air quality in the area, and for developing management plans to improve air quality and to meet other environmental concerns. I remember from our previous debate on this issue that the council has maintained a monitoring site at Horn lane since 2005, and her frustrationthat this continual monitoring does not seem to be delivering benefits is understood.The Horn Lane site is particularly plagued by high levels of particulate matter pollution, or PM10, which is composed of dust and other fine materials from transport sources and other sources. However, I absolutely concede my hon. Friend’s point that it is industrial processes, such as waste management, construction and demolition, that she is concerned about in this area. PM10 is not visible to the naked eye, but it can be monitored and it impacts on human health, particularly vulnerable groups with respiratory problems. She made a very good point about the number of inhalers that are being sold locally.The UK has set national objectives for levels of particulate matter and these should not exceed an annual mean of 40 micrograms per cubic metre. The UK has also set a level of 50 micrograms per cubic metre for daily mean levels of particulate matter. It is recognised that on some days this daily level might not be achieved because of particular local circumstances or weather conditions, and we therefore allow up to 35 days’ exceedances at those sites to take account of these instances.In 2005, the Horn Lane monitoring site recorded levels of dust in excess of the national daily objective on 205 days. These levels were unacceptable and it was clear that rapid and urgent action was needed. In 2012, thanks to action by the EA and site operators, no more than 53 days were recorded as being over the daily objective. This is a significant reduction on the 2005 figure, but it is still too high. So far this year, there have been 36 days recorded in excess of the daily objective.I want to outline what action has been carried out by various agencies since 2010, when we last spoke, and what action is being taken now with the Mayor, who is the strategic lead for air quality in London, and my Department. The Horn Lane area and the industrial site comprises several industrial processes adjacent to residential properties and a number of arterial roads and railways. These present several potential sources of PM10 close to the monitoring site at Horn lane, including waste transfer, scrap metal, aggregate supply and a concrete batching process. In addition, there are various key transport pollution sources in the area, including traffic on Horn lane and on the western A40; buses along Horn lane; and trains on the adjacent railway. But I concede my hon. Friend’s point that, although those may be part of the problem, they are not the significant driver, because plenty of other areas in her constituency with the same transport issues do not have this problem. One does not have to be a scientist or to have any particular knowledge about PM10s to know where the problem is coming from. Major construction works in the form of Crossrail and, recently, roadworks in the vicinity of the Horn lane may have contributed.We must remember that all these activities are important for growth, ensuring waste is recycled and construction materials are produced. I know that my hon. Friend is mindful of this for the benefit of Londoners as a whole and for the wealth of her constituency, but it is about where we locate such activities and the practicalities of doing that. These activities provide valuable employment opportunities, both locally and across London, and return money to the local economy. However, this combination of factors has also contributed to a perfectstorm of pollution potential, making this location among the most challenging for operators to control and for the Environment Agency and the London borough of Ealing to regulate. This control must be achieved and it is the responsibility of operators, with support from other agencies, to ensure that their activities are properly managed.I am staggered that a major change has taken place without planning permission. In an area as contentious as this, that seems to be an extraordinary state of affairs and it is right that my hon. Friend raises it.At Horn lane, the Environment Agency regulates part of the aggregates site run by Yeoman’s aggregates, the waste transfer station of Gowing and Pursey, and Horn Lane Metals scrap merchant. The London borough of Ealing should also regulate part of the Yeoman aggregates site and a concrete production site, with Transport for London having responsibility for reducing pollution from transport sources.The Environment Agency produced an amenity action plan in 2010, which is regularly updated with details of the actions taken to reduce emissions from the sites it regulates. These measures have significantly contributed to the reduction in levels since 2005.Enforcement action has been taken against sites that are not performing appropriately and further legal enforcement has been taken and further enforcement remains an option. Since 2010, the Environment Agency has issued several notices to ensure waste transfer operations at the site are properly controlled. We rely on my hon. Friend to continue to keep us informed, where she thinks that this is not happening fast enough and where her direct dealings with the Environment Agency do not yield the correct answers. I remain on hand, and my colleague in the House of Lords, who has direct responsibility for these issues, will certainly follow up matters, as and when she informs us.The agency has worked with Gowing and Pursey to install monitoring equipment and alert systems, so that the operators can respond to instances when dust levels are approaching dangerous levels; it is important to be able to monitor it before it becomes a major problem, and that is what is sought. The agency has also worked with those responsible for other sources of particulate pollution on the site, to promote improvements.In 2012, the EA worked with the Greater London Authority and Transport for London to introduce a programme of deep cleaning, including the use of calcium magnesium acetate dust suppressant, to control dust levels at the site. The work was successful and showed a 36% reduction in the level of particulates in the area. Following a brief period where the site appeared to be contributing to dust in the area, an enforcement notice was served to bring the site back into compliance with its permit within one working day. This has been effective and at the time of the last inspection on 22 May, the site was clean and all waste was contained within the shed. Although particulate matter has reduced, all the parties recognise that levels continue to be above nationalobjectives and continued action is needed to ensure the gains made are sustained and further reductions achieved.The GLA represents the Mayor’s interest in improving air quality. It does this working with national Government and  with London boroughs and the Environment Agency, as well as other stakeholders, such as business. Last week, the Environment Agency and the GLA co-ordinated a meeting, which my hon. Friend mentioned, of the key regulators responsible for this site, together with Department officials. A number of key actions were identified from that meeting and these will be taken forward by the key players concerned. We really want to make sure that these work and that a quantum leap is made in trying to resolve this problem.The Environment Agency and the London borough of Ealing, as the main regulatory bodies, agreed to intensify their inspection regime to ensure that permit conditions were being met. I understand that this will include joint inspections, to be held monthly, and further action by the London borough of Ealing, agreed to reduce emissions from the wet concrete batching facility and the private haul road. There is similar action by the Environment Agency at the local metal waste site, and manual and mechanical sweeping, and further use of CMA spray, on the site to control dust. These and other detailed measures will help ensure that pressure is imposed to reduce particulate pollution. This site continues to concern us and we will continue to monitor it and my Department will continue to take a close interest in ensuring progress is maintained.As we can see, this site presents a complex challenge. It is necessary for the local authority, the Environment Agency, the GLA and operators to work together to identify and control pollution sources. The regulators must also ensure that the responsible operators on the site comply with the control measures and monitor levels of pollution. Outside the site, ongoing action is being taken by the GLA to reduce transport emissions.The continued action from my hon. Friend and local residents has been helpful in ensuring this. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for raising the issue again today. I would have to be obtuse not to get the frustration that she feels on behalf of her constituents who live in this area. It is a complex site—an industrial site—that, in an ideal world, would not be in a location surrounded by residential accommodation. I assure her that this issue is on our radar. We want to ensure that the leadership that she has shown is reflected by leadership from all the agencies, some of which we are responsible for, such as the Environment Agency. However, we are not responsible for others and we look to my hon. Friend to continue to hold their feet to the fire on this.We want this matter to be resolved. We do not want my hon. Friend to have to bring this back to the House, but I commend her for doing it.Question put and agreed toSitting adjourned.

Don Kelly ● 4156d