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Classic case of heart over head Nicola. The evidence from HMRC and OBR released today (see below) confirmed that the high rate of tax actually brought in less than Labour promised it would - just as the Tories said at the time. Then again, this isn't exactly a revelation as the same pattern was seen in the 70s.Until the electorate understand that we actually need the rich to stay in Britain (the top 1% pay 25% of all tax, and 1/3 of households pay for the other 2/3) we're simply likely to drive them further away, thus making our financial position worse not better. You can accuse the Chancellor of all you like, but maybe it's a good thing this government is run with heads not hearts - the former Chancellor Alistair Darling stated the 50p rate would have to be temporary - and Postman Pat lookalike Ed Millipede didn't have the balls to say he would re-instate it, so where's his integrity while he lectures the Tories - not least given his own tax arrangements(see story of his £1.6m house in the Guardian).+++++OBR:    As discussed further in Box 4.2, a key driver of this shortfall is lower-than-expected revenue from the 50 per cent additional rate of income tax introduced in April 2010.     Estimating the size of such behavioural responses is very difficult, especially for high- income individuals who are likely to be more willing and able to alter their working lives and financial arrangements in response to tax changes than the bulk of the population. The overall size of the behavioural response can be captured by estimating the Taxable Income Elasticity (TIE), the overall responsiveness of total taxable incomes to changes in marginal tax rates. The March 2010 costing used a TIE of 0.35, implying that the introduction of the 50 per cent rate would cut the total taxable income of the affected taxpayers by 5.9 per cent.    HMRC have now undertaken the first ex post analysis of the 50 per cent yield, based on 2010-11 self-assessment tax returns. One striking finding is that high-income individuals appear to have shifted at least £16 billion of income that would have been taxed in future years into 2009-10 so that it would be taxed at 40 per cent rather than 50 per cent. This has a one-off cost to the Exchequer of around £1 billion. The scale of forestalling, which was not factored into the March 2010 Budget costing at all, illustrates how willing and able high-income individuals are to adjust their behaviour in response to changes in tax rates.    Using a methodology broadly consistent with that of Brewer et al, and adjusting for forestalling, the HMRC study also suggests that the underlying behavioural response to the 50 per cent rate has been more powerful than the March 2010 Budget costing suggested. It points to a TIE around or above the Brewer et al level and significantly higher than 0.35. In its costing of the move to a 45 per cent rate, the Government has assumed a TIE of 0.45 – broadly in line with the Brewer et al estimate. We believe that this is a reasonable and central estimate, both for the costing and for our underlying forecast. Taken at face value the HMRC study might suggest an even higher TIE, but this would risk placing put too much weight on a single year’s outturn evidence – especially given the complications from disentangling the forestalling effect. There is also reason to believe that the behavioural response to the cut in the tax rate may be smaller than to the increase, because of the costs involved in swiftly reversing expensive decisions on retirement, migration, tax planning and evasion. But it is very important to emphasise the significant uncertainties around all such estimates.

Chris Martin ● 5292d

IMHO Duncan-Smith is one of the more intelligent and thoughtful members of the current govt. Clearly not suited to the limelight of the top job, but making a very sensible and timely attempt at reforming an out-of-control welfare state in an inclusive and sensitive way. The status quo is unsustainable. And the "country" i.e. "hard-working families" and other taxpayers do a sterling job, in challenging circumstances, in supporting through the tax system those pensioners who did not think, or could not afford, to make their own adequate provision for their retirement. This is not a party political issue: Frank Field tried to do something similarly radical under the Labour administration and was kicked into the long grass for his trouble (and now advises IDS, incidentally).The current generation of pensioners, who are likely to be spending the best part of 30 years taking money out of the system are in a much better place than today's working population who will have to work longer; provide for themselves in retirement to a much greater extent; struggle to afford to buy their own homes etc. etc.Good luck with the blue rinse revolution. Politicians are terrified of activist pensioners - "flocking immigrants" and the Gillian Duffy effect. Dissing IDS for being bald seems a bit un-PC and wholly without logic. Follically challenged men (WH, IDS) appear to be much more trustworthy and credible than their bouffant-haired political peacock colleagues - e.g. MT, JM, TB, GB, DC. Boris being the exception that proves this rule.

Peter Millman ● 5291d

Well Susan this is one of those issues where probably only the Treasury has the all the figures on the 40% of pensioners who will be affected. I did not read the raging papers yesterday and so I don’t know how many are on good pensions and have nothing to worry about, but I certainly have read in the past that the average income for a pensioner who gets a state pension plus a small superannuation from their old employer is very low. Yes some people had all those things you mention, but it worthwhile noting that less than 20% of the elders went to University. It is worth noting that many working people today are far better off than was the case in the 1950’s and sixties. People like Andrew Marr say the middle classes, by which I think he means in this context people who have better incomes, have increased significantly.Then there all those widows who get a small overall pension partly from their deceased husbands but they generally get a very small income.I don’t begrudge individuals who earn more than £150K. But they are a very small number. And on that income compared to the rest of us they are very well off, thank you. I don’t know the tax calculations but I think a ball park saving for a supertax person is about £5K minimum. That is way more than a person on Jobseekers, who is very vulnerable.The supertax people are not vulnerable in the same way that people near the bottom of the pile are. Oldies cannot easily fight back against the loss without getting work. How would they do that?The argument will go on and on. However no elder will forget when Brown shamefully increased the basic pension by 75p. No elder will forget this attack on their higher personal allowance which has been there for about 90 years. As and we all know the grey heads do a lot of voting. It certainly gives the Labour party considerable ammunition. It was a stupid political move when so starkly set against the 5% supertax reduction. It will not be forgotten for quite a long time.

George Knox ● 5291d

"It's always been the way, work half a year to pay the tax man.  You sound as if you are hard done by, but, you sound as if you are one of those rich-kids that just wants and wants!"I'm not in that category (or even close to it!) but if I was I certainly wouldn't be sticking round in the UK - and this sentiment doesn't appear to be unique judging by the substantial shift in behaviour amongst people in the 50p tax bracket - there's a good risk we'll kill the goose that's laying our golden egg - this sums it up nicely:Every night, 10 men met at a restaurant for dinner. At the end of the meal, the bill would arrive. They owed £100 for the food that they shared. Every night they lined up in the same order at the till.The first four men paid nothing at all.The fifth, grumbling about unfairness of the situation, paid only £1.The sixth man, feeling very generous, paid £3.The next three men paid £7, £12 and £18, respectively.The last man was required to pay the remaining balance, £59. He realized that he was forced to pay for not only his own meal but the unpaid balance left by the first five men, but did not protest.However, the 10 men were quite settled into their routine when the restaurant threw them into chaos by announcing that it was cutting its prices. Now dinner for the 10 men would only cost £80.This clearly would not affect the first four men. They still ate for free. The fifth and sixth men both claimed their piece of the £20 right away.The fifth decided to forgo his £1 contribution.The sixth pitched in £2.The seventh man deducted £2 from his usual payment and paid £5.The eighth man paid £9.The ninth man paid £12,leaving the last man with a bill of £52.Outside of the restaurant, the men began to compare their individual savings from the £20 reduction,and angry outbursts began to erupt.The sixth man yelled, "I only got £1 back out of the £20, and he got £7," pointing at the last man.The fifth man joined in. "Yeah! I only got £1 too. It is unfair that he got seven times more than me."The seventh man cried, "Why should he get £7 back when I only got £2?"The nine men formed an outraged mob, surrounding the 10th man. The first four men followed the lead of the others: "We didn't get any of the £20. Where is our share?" The nine angry men carried the 10th man up to the top of a hill and lynched him.

Chris Martin ● 5290d

ChrisNot confused but you miss perhaps the underlying point.Of course people on JSA do not pay income tax.Increasing the PA is seriously long overdue. The more who come out of tax the greater the saving to HMRC running costs. Am all for that as well.Plenty of people paying 60%. What’s plenty assuming 30M in work?15% of workers are now predicted to pay 40% under this budget. That’s quite a few. Shan’t dispute all your figures but trust you have reliable evidence. Recipients of £30K or less get more in benefits. Not quite clear on this. Are you saying someone on £29k gets benefits of more than £29K? That does take some explaining.The really big earners use tax avoidance probably quite extensively. They would be fools not to.Anyway you gave some facts and then said what you think. I happen to disagree with you but I am not going to write a 100 page tome.Put yourself in the position of someone on JSA seeing a £150K earner getting a raise of a lot more than what the JSA earner receives for living expenses in a year. I think the decision is highly divisive.  I gave that example simply then for you to go on to consider the next group of people who are in receipt of a low income but just out of the support net and who will never work again because they are pensioners. They also will be aggrieved to see some one getting a raise of say £5K which would transform their lives. Of course they don’t expect £5K but they don’t expect to be worse off by virtue of inflation eating into their income at a faster rate than they bargained for in all their time leading to retirement. So for, I would say, a lot of pensioners the decision will be divisive. And to an extent the Tories will be punished for it, because pensioners do not forget.Despite my own view there is a great deal of huff about this change. I am not out on a limb.

George Knox ● 5290d